Next Manager?

Good post VB

This link has a little on RDM and his leaving statement, but an interesting insight into previous managers and their win ratios. To achieve promotion (Well play off's) we need at least 70 points (based on last season, 69 the year before) so that means we will need a win ratio of over 50% to get up there if my maths are right, that will be the highest by far on the list in the link.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37551265

I think promotion is out of reach and thus, let's get someone to build something and get us ready to take on the world for next year (whilst still having a go at it this year)

villabromsgrove wrote:I've been firmly in the 'experienced manager' camp for so long, but what is changing my opinion is the lack of an energetic buzz around our squad. We've played eleven Championship teams so far, and with a couple of exceptions they've all looked like they were fitter, better coached and had more desire than us.

As a player gets older it must be harder for him to get excited and motivated by doing the same old things that he's done day after day after day! It's made me think that this could be the same for managers. For example, David Moyes is one of my favourite managers, and yet if I stop to think when Moyes was last at his best it was some seasons back. DM looks a tired man doing the same things over and over again and getting slightly less back from his efforts as time goes by. It's the law of diminishing returns.  

The younger 'new breed' of managers may not have the experience of a Bruce or a Clarke, but they have a burning desire to become the best, and boundless energy to make it happen. We need to tap into that.

But as I've said yesterday, we have stayed away from highly experienced managers for a long time now. The last one was arguably McLeish, possibly even Houllier. We've gone for young, hungry managers, enthusiastic managers and foreign managers. No Allardyces or Bruces have darkened the home touchline at Villa Park.

I think we're getting too wrapped up in Bruce Vs Wagner to be honest. One would assume that both men are on the list but so too are eight other managers. Aside from Steve Clarke we also don't know the identity of these other candidates. We've been given some pointers on who they aren't but not who they are.

I'm the opposite to you, I always used to want us to try something different and try younger or foreign coaches. I still do but only really the right ones at the right time. I'm not necessarily against one this time, either, but I look at Wagner and I see someone who is only on the radar because of how Huddersfield have started the season. An obvious flavour of the month choice and I think you always need to be cautious of those. It reminds me of that weird mass hysteria that started on Villa forums a few years ago when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was linked with the job. It reminds me of Remi Garde and even, to an extent, Lambert. Nobody would be talking about him if Huddersfield were 12th in the division, no matter how good his methods are. Lee Johnson and Dean Smith have both improved clubs in the lower leagues over a period of a number of seasons so I'd feel a lot more positive about them, as an aside.

The one factor that will count in the favour of whoever gets the job is that there are some good players here and a decent budget so it's not going to be difficult to effect an improvement in results and plenty of poor managers have done well in the Championship.

Maybe I'm underestimating how far we've sunk in recent years but surely Aston Villa manager is still a big job? Why the desire to appoint a rookie (or a hasbeen)?

Here's enough to make you shudder re Bruce, imo anyway https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2011/nov/30/steve-bruce-sunderland-sacked (of course it backs my view of not wanting him haha)

Who are the successful managers that we could realistically stand a chance of appointing? The established currently employed managers are probably out of our reach, apart from possibly Hughton and he would probably turn us down at the moment.

The good managers have become "good' because someone took a chance on them when they were just prospects. For example, Bournemouth wouldn't have a hope in hell of persuading the 2016 version of Eddie Howe to join their club, so they did brilliantly when they gave the young EH an opportunity.

We could almost certainly appoint an older 'name' but it would be have to be someone on the way down rather than the way up.

I'll say again that I have no idea whether I'm on the right track with my current thinking, but I'm trying to think of a way forward for Villa that out of work recycled managers would probably not be able to provide.

Sandie wrote:Maybe I'm underestimating how far we've sunk in recent years but surely Aston Villa manager is still a big job? Why the desire to appoint a rookie (or a hasbeen)?

I would say we still have appeal, however the fact we're a managers graveyard cannot be ignored either. As for rookie or has been, I guess that covers the Wagners, Smith and Johnson's v Bruce, Hodgson and McCarthy's of the world. Both have their pros and cons...which have been discussed!

What's the in between here Sandie? People like Dyche, Allardyce etc? Or should we really be reaching with guys like Hiddink, Bielsa, Mancini and Schaaf unemployed? Without asking you never know right? Maybe Benitez in the Championship will make it more appealing for other 'big' name managers. I've wanted Klinsmann for every Villa job since MON, would still have him.

Sandie wrote:Maybe I'm underestimating how far we've sunk in recent years but surely Aston Villa manager is still a big job? Why the desire to appoint a rookie (or a hasbeen)?

I would say we still have appeal, however the fact we're a managers graveyard cannot be ignored either. As for rookie or has been, I guess that covers the Wagners, Smith and Johnson's v Bruce, Hodgson and McCarthy's of the world. Both have their pros and cons...which have been discussed!

What's the in between here Sandie? People like Dyche, Allardyce etc? Or should we really be reaching with guys like Hiddink, Bielsa, Mancini and Schaaf unemployed? Without asking you never know right? Maybe Benitez in the Championship will make it more appealing for other 'big' name managers. I've wanted Klinsmann for every Villa job since MON, would still have him.

GadgetMan wrote:Here's enough to make you shudder re Bruce, imo anyway https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2011/nov/30/steve-bruce-sunderland-sacked (of course it backs my view of not wanting him haha)

This article was written five years ago, but it's an enlightening read and is probably even more valid today.

When you see the way that sports science and analysis has become an integral part of the game it clearly delineates the past from the future. It used to be enough to go out on the pitch with the better players and expect to beat your less able opponents. Times change! Now matches are often won or lost in the preparation and planning for the game.

Bruce is a lovely fella and he would be well liked by the players, but at best he could only ever be a short term fix. As GM said, the likelihood of promotion this season is mathematically slim, so let's appoint someone who can get us up and at it for 2017/18.

villabromsgrove wrote:The good managers have become "good' because someone took a chance on them when they were just prospects. For example, Bournemouth wouldn't have a hope in hell of persuading the 2016 version of Eddie Howe to join their club, so they did brilliantly when they gave the young EH an opportunity.

They were bottom of League Two when they gave him a chance.

Howe didn't exactly excel at Burnley either, showing issues of leaving what you know and what you've tried to build before you're ready.

GadgetMan wrote:

I would say we still have appeal, however the fact we're a managers graveyard cannot be ignored either. As for rookie or has been, I guess that covers the Wagners, Smith and Johnson's v Bruce, Hodgson and McCarthy's of the world. Both have their pros and cons...which have been discussed!

What's the in between here Sandie? People like Dyche, Allardyce etc? Or should we really be reaching with guys like Hiddink, Bielsa, Mancini and Schaaf unemployed? Without asking you never know right? Maybe Benitez in the Championship will make it more appealing for other 'big' name managers. I've wanted Klinsmann for every Villa job since MON, would still have him.

Fat Sam belongs firmly in the same tier as Bruce. And the recent corruption issues mean he is untouchable by all but the most desperate of clubs.

I'd see people like Sean Dyche and Chris Hughton as that kind of middle ground. There are managers who might be considered in the rookie tier I'd also consider like Gary Rowett and to an extent Lee Johnson as being worth consideration. The obvious question being whether they could be prised from their current clubs. Maybe the idea of a long term project could also appeal to the bigger name managers. The Doctor has a long term plan for the business side too that could appeal. There are also no doubt other managers out there with good ideas and philosophies who could be found with a bit of research and approached.

I have hope that the list under discussion includes some options we haven't really visited yet.

Appointing Sean Dyche would be a real sign that Villa carry considerably more clout than I give us credit for. That's how far we've fallen because that would have been an unthinkable thing to say just two seasons ago.

I think that Hughton would be torn between loyalty and ambition if we approached him. If it were Hughton, I would put him in the category of a good man who's a safe pair of hands, although without a progressive future imo. Gary Rowett is a manager that I've got a lot of time for, but he would bring the 'hardcore' fans (those who hate the Blues as much if not more than they love the Villa) out of the woodwork in droves.

I think that our final choice of manager has to be driven by Dr T's vision for Villa, and the KW/SR remit for worldwide and technology based development for AVFC.

Johnson rules himself out: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37573635

Sandie wrote:Johnson rules himself out: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37573635

That's a standard reply . He doesn't say he's not leaving, he's just covering his bases. If we wanted him, he would come imo.

I've read everything I can find on the likely candidates and I'm still of the opinion that we need a Howe/Dyche/Wagner/Johnson type manager. I keep hearing that we need an experienced manager, a man who has been there done it and got the tee shirt. In my opinion we do not need to employ a 55 year old who knows the job back to front but has never been able to develop a squad or club in order to move it to the next level.

My son has just said to me "we don't need a manager to come in and steady the ship, that is no longer the main requirement". We need to begin doing what Dr T has said that he came here to do. Begin building a new Villa and put it at the top end of football.

Continually recycling mix and match managers is not the way to take Villa onwards and upwards. To do that we need a strong minded progressive manager with self belief. Someone who has not yet failed, and has the energy and drive that only a fit and forceful individual can possess.

I may only be dreaming that there is such a person for Villa at this time, but we owe it to ourselves to try to find one.

Dyche would be the man for me IF he would forsake the premier league and a club he has built up for a new project. He brings a mix of being that kind of younger manager with a CV that includes a couple of promotions. I'm not sure what makes him especially progressive, though. He's just a bloody good manager.

Here's a general question, not really linked to our manager hunt, but is there really that many managers out there who are building up clubs over a long period of time? Looking at the clubs who have come up and done well like Southampton, Swansea and Watford all of them operate in the opposite fashion with a regular turn over of managers either due to trigger happy owners or them being poached by ambitious bigger clubs. The one exception is Bournemouth but Eddie Howe has built them up all the way from League Two and I strongly suspect he will be moving on to a huge job sooner rather than later. No manager seems to last more than three or four seasons in the Premier League, less in the Championship.

My expectation is that if Aston Villa is to be brought back we will go through more than one manager to get there. The creation of the Villa ethos is mostly the responsibility of Steve Round rather than the manager, though I suspect Steve will be selecting managers to fit that. That's how clubs like Southampton and Swansea have worked.