Aston Villa v Stoke City : Saturday October 3rd at 3PM.

Putting up the next Villa fixture for discussion should be a pleasurable experience, so why have I put off opening this thread for as long as I could?

Hand's up anyone who's looking forward to Saturday! I'm dreading it but I'm desperate for a result although unless Tim Sherwood has a eureka moment, I can't see him making the necessary changes.

Hand's up anyone who thinks we'll play three defensive midfielders and Hutton, while leaving two of our three talented midfielders on the bench.

Hands up those who think Gabby will be given the nod instead of Ayew.

If we're going to get three points we have to get at least one goal more than Stoke! I wonder whether TS realises that fact, because his tactics and team selections so far show no indication that he does.

Sorry to be so negative guys, what I need is for some of you to cheer me up with a few positives .... don't all rush at once.

I've gone for a narrow loss.

I think we'll see a change in approach by Sherwood on Saturday (blind hope and optimism?) I think we'll see Gana and Veretout both start in midfield (if he jasnt learned now that the 3 DM Approach isn't working, then he never will)

I hope to see a far more dynamic selection, tactic and display. We NEED it quite frankly. Nothing short of a win will do. I'm backing us to get it. Should we go with what you think may happen on Saturday VB then we deserve everything we get and Tim deserves even more flak and pressure.

Narrow and tense win for me. 2-1 villa (no clean sheet) however villa at least looking a little more productive a UTV

GadgetMan wrote:I think we'll see a change in approach by Sherwood on Saturday (blind hope and optimism?) I think we'll see Gana and Veretout both start in midfield (if he jasnt learned now that the 3 DM Approach isn't working, then he never will)

Aye. Well at least I live in hope that he will!

This game is absolutely massive, IMO, but I think we'll nick it. Losing doesn't bear thinking about!

Any changes have to be sweeping. You can't tinker with something that is wrong in most elements, it needs pro active surgery.

This is a huge game for Villa. Losing is not an option.

What team should we go for?

I'd go for...

Guzan

Hutton
Richards
Lescott
Amavi

Traore
Gana
Veretout
Grealish

Ayew/Sinclair
Gestede

Not really a fan of 4-4-2, but not really sure we have a striker who is effective as a lone forward.

I want a win, badly, but, have gone for a draw because I've no idea what Tim Sherwood's line up, and tactics will bring us.

We're all crying out for an attacking formation, he really has to go for it, he has the players to cause problems for Stoke, no good fannying about with sit back and wait tactics.

So I'll cross my fingers and hope for a magical display form the lads to prove my skepticism wrong. UTV

This is how I'd line up. I guess a 4-1-2-3 or 4-3-3 depending how you view it. In an ideal world I'd have Okore at RB when fit, as Hutton and Bacuna don't cut it. I'm not sure Veretout and Gana are ready to go it alone in the centre YET!!

Guzan

Hutton Richards Clark Amavi

Westwood

Veretout Gana

Traore Grealish

Rudy

A win for me, is the only acceptable outcome. I don't think this is the side Tim will pick, just my take. I think we will see Traore on the Bench and another midfielder (Sanchez?) shoved in there.

I've just read a damning Martin Tyler "stat". Every game we've lost this season has been by one goal. That's happened because we've set out with three defensive midfielders and instructions to quieten the opposition fans and stay in the game as long as we can. In other words we haven't set out to win the game, we've set out to try and keep it tight and try and snatch something.

The only game we've won this season was against Bournemouth, when we played this tactic, and even though they gave us a battering for long periods of the match Gestede's goal won it for us.

If Sherwood thinks that's a plan, then the one goal losses are going to keep adding up.

Whilst I agree that the gameplan is wrong, 2 of those games have been 3-2 defeats which suggests the problems we have are defensive as much as they are having a stifling game plan. It's not good being in the situation that you have to score three or four goals to get something.

Pre-game stats:
http://www.fourfourtwo.com/statszone/8-2015/matches/803237/pre-match#:sR45qDWeNdqZbA

• Aston Villa have won just two of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Stoke (D5 L4).
  
• Stoke have averaged 1.43 points per game in the PL away at Villa Park. Only away at West Brom have they won more PL points, 2.5 (minimum 5 games).
  
• The Villans have scored exactly one goal in each of their last four PL clashes with Stoke and have netted more than once in just one of their last 12 top-tier games against the Potters.
  
• Tim Sherwood's team have registered just one victory in their seven Premier League meetings with Stoke at Villa Park, losing the last two (D4).
  
• Since August 2013, Rudy Gestede has scored 21 headed goals in league competition; six more than any other player in the English top-four tiers.
  Mame Biram Diouf has netted five goals in his last seven Premier League appearances.
  
• Peter Crouch has scored in his last two top-flight starts against Aston Villa, while overall he has bagged five PL goals versus his former club (only versus Arsenal, Blackburn and Newcastle has he scored more).
  
• Aston Villa's last three Premier League games have all ended in defeats by a one-goal margin for the Villans. One more similar loss for Villa will equal the joint-longest such run in PL history (four in a row).
  
• This is Stoke's second-worst-ever PL start to a season after seven games, with their six-point haul this season two more than they managed in 2008/09 (when they still finished 12th).
  
• Midfielder Ashley Westwood is one game shy of his 100th Premier League appearance for Aston Villa, netting three goals and providing 10 assists so far.
  

http://www.whoscored.com/Matches/959805/Preview

• There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Stoke's last 6 away games in the Premier League.
  
• Stoke have failed to win their last 8 away matches in the Premier League.
  
• Stoke are undefeated in their last 5 away matches against Aston Villa in all competitions.
  

Aston Villa's Strengths

• Aerial duels (Very Strong)
  
• Creating chances through individual skill (Strong)
  
• Stealing the ball from the opposition (Strong)
  

Aston Villa's Weaknesses

• Avoiding fouling in dangerous areas (Weak)
  
• Defending against attacks down the wings (Weak)
  
• Avoiding individual errors (Weak)
  
• Defending against through ball attacks (Very Weak)
  
• Protecting the lead (Very Weak)
  

Stoke's Strengths
(Team has no significant strengths) HA! We'll see about that.
Stoke's Weaknesses

• Avoiding offside (Weak)
  
• Defending against through ball attacks (Weak)
  
• Defending against skillful players (Weak)
  
• Protecting the lead (Weak)
  
• Stopping opponents from creating chances (Weak)
  
• Defending set pieces (Very Weak) A game for Rudy then?
  

Aston Villa's Style

•  Play with width
  
• Attack through the middle
  
• Rotate their first eleven
  
• Playing in their own half
  

Stoke's Style

• Attacking down the left
  
• Take long shots
  
• Play with width
  
•  Playing in their own half
  
• Rotate their first eleven
  
• Non-aggressive
  
• Play the offside trap
  
• Opponents play aggressively against them
  

Match Forecast
Aston Villa will score as a result of individual skill (Likely)

Prediction

• Villa desperately need a win to kickstart their season but they face a Stoke side who will be hoping to really get going themselves, sitting just above their hosts outside of the relegation zone.
  
• Villa, however, haven't beaten Stoke at home in 5 attempts so they will need to buck that trend and get the ball into the box from wide areas to Rudy Gestede more often.
  
• Both teams made notable signings over the summer and must begin to kick on with those newcomers now having had plenty of time to settle in.

Aston Villa 1-1 Stoke

Thanks for the Stats Sandie. Always good to have a read of the pre game stuff, maybe we could do a contrast with how it actually pans out.

Gana  Westwood
    Sanchez


                                         Hutton


That's what's killing us.


    Veretout


     Gana




                                      Bacuna


This will help get the job done.

I wish I had your faith it was as simple as dropping both Sanchez and Westwood for it all to click. It will be a start I'm sure. I sadly don't see Bacuna as any better than Hutton. Perhaps his final ball is better, however I also think his defending is worse.

I honestly believe it's not players per se and more the instructions/tactics set up by Sherwood. Cast your mind back to last year when Tim got the exact same players doing a lot more than Lambert could get them to. Well I think this same set are as hamstrung as that set were back then.....by the manager. Change the mentality, lose the fear and half of the problem hopefully starts to disappear. I guess individuals are then the other part f the problem.

Point being without a fundamental change in how Sherwood goes about setting us up, not a great deal will change. If he picks Gana and Veretout and then restricts them with a "let's spoil and suffocate the game, worry about the opposition etc! Then the outcome could be the same.

I guess you're looking at it as if he does pick those players he's already decided to also make the same tactical changes? That's where I'm less convinced. As each week goes by TS takes on the demeanour of a frightened man. He's better at hiding it than Lambert, but it's etched all over his tactics and the teams performances.

We know that Sherwood's going to play Gestede, so Bacuna makes more sense than Hutton because he can whip in a fairly accurate curling cross from the right. Hutton would try to, but his end result is 99% naff.

Playing Gana and Veretout to both press when we're not in possession and rotate the cover when either takes the ball forward would also free up a space for Ayew to play off Gestede. Rudy comes into the game almost exclusively with the occasional quality high cross, We need Ayew to fill the spaces around the box for balls that Gestede will not read. Grealish wide left and cutting in leaves space for Amavi on the overlap, and Gil doing the same on the right means that Gestede's supply should come from Amavi and Bacuna, with Ayew receiving zipped carpet ball from Grealish and Gil. If Adama is fit enough for a twenty minute cameo, I would like to see him replace the least effective or most tired one out of Grealish, Gil or Ayew. That will not only keep the pressure on but also increase it against a tiring defence.

This would get rid of our one dimensional easy to read game plan and cause Stoke some problems. We'll still need to outscore them because our defence will probably leak on the break as usual. I just don't want to see three central defensive midfielders trying to block defensive gaps, at the expense of being able to get forward with more creative players.